Modeling the origin of precipitations in Managua city using HYSPLIT simulations.

Abstract

Precipitation is the main component of the world hydrological cycle that also affects the weather in a certain area. Due to the limited knowledge on the dynamics of the regional precipitations and moisture origins it is very difficult to improve the weather forecasting in the Central American area that was the main reason to undertake this work to determine the origin of precipitations registered in Managua city from July, 2016 until July, 2017 by applying a back trajectory analysis. The simulations were made with the free access modeling system HYSPLIT developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Department of Commerce (NOAA).  There were registered 99 precipitation events with the same number of back trajectories in the studied time period generating a cumulative precipitation of 1066 mm with origins in the Caribbean Sea (73 %), Pacific Ocean (21%) and the Continent (6%). The Caribbean Sea moisture contribution of was higher than the one from the Pacific Ocean in terms of total precipitation volume and events frequency, however the Pacific presented a higher contribution in volume per event. It was detected a net moisture cycling of 46 mm by evapotranspiration supplied by the Biological Reserve Indio Maíz in Nicaragua, Tawahka in the south of Honduras, and from the Natural Reserves Cerro Wawashan in the Nicaraguan South Caribbean Coast and Bosawás Nicaraguan North Caribbean Coast.

Keywords: Moisture, HYSPLIT, precipitation, back trajectories.