Dynamics of land cover in Sub-basin III of the South Basin of Lake Managua, Nicaragua.

Abstract

Sub-basin III of the South Basin of Lake Managua, Nicaragua (hereafter Sub-basin III of Managua) is considered a strategic area for the economic and social development of Managua, so the dynamics of land cover that occur there generate environmental conflicts of different magnitudes. Therefore, the novelty of the study is the evaluation of the dynamics through Markovian transition probabilities using Landsat satellite images. Furthermore, based on logistic regression models, the biophysical and socioeconomic variables that affect the transitions of each land cover occurred over time were determined. And additionally, with the Orderly Allocation method plus the previous procedures, the dynamics of each coverage was simulated to the year 2025. The predictive capacity of the logistic regression models was evaluated by the method of the ROC curve (Receiver Operating Characteristic). The following periods were considered: 1997-2003, 2003-2010, 2010-2016, 2016-2025 (simulated). The results indicated that in the study area during all the periods, agriculture predominated with few oscillations over time. For the simulated period, there are high probabilities that the forest and urban areas will increase. The estimated transitions during the different periods observed reflect a high dynamism between the land covers. During the simulation, and with few exceptions, a similar dynamism was observed concerning the last observed period. Biophysical and socioeconomic variables explain the land cover transitions in Sub-basin III of Managua. However, the influence and the direction changes of the effects were not constant in the evaluated periods. Additionally, the validation results indicate that the land cover change model was acceptable.