Evaluación de la aleatoria de Los sorteos de la lotería nacional de Nicaragua
Keywords:
lottery, ordinary draw, randomness, NicaraguaAbstract
The National lottery constitutes an important company for the generation of jobs and income for the Republic of Nicaragua, generating direct and indirect jobs, prizes for its winners and benefiting social sectors with the net profits of its activity. At the present, the National Lottery company markets the games of Ordinary Lottery, Instant Lottery and Electronic Lottery. With its motto "Luck is crazy and it is anyone`s turn", the National Lottery tries to emphasize the random nature of its draws to maintain and increase the confidence of the population in its activity.
In this study, an analysis of the randomness of the ordinary draws of the National Lottery of Nicaragua was carried out. For the purposes of this research, it was decided to analyze the randomness of the ordinary draw 2031 carried out on Tuesday, April 27, 2021. In this regard, each draw consists of 651 rounds in which the same number of winning combinations (tickets) is obtained. From a sample point of view, 651 observations are more than enough to assess the randomness of the draw.
The data were evaluated visually and statistically. Visual analysis illustrated the randomness of the draws. From the statistical point of view, five different hypothesis tests were developed: the chi-square test, the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test, the Bartels rank test, the Cox-Stuart test, and the sign difference test. All tests confirmed the hypothesis that the draws of the National Lottery of Nicaragua are random.
In conclusion, the people of Nicaragua can fully trust the results of the ordinary draws of the National Lottery of Nicaragua because, as his motto says, in reality it is true that "luck is crazy and it is anyone's turn."
References
Cabezas Romero, Hellen Natasha (2010). Capacidad y habilidades en la planificación y ejecución de campañas, tomando como experiencia laboral la Campaña del sorteo Navideño 2009 y de las Madres 2010. Recuperado de http://repositorio.uca.edu.ni/194/1/UCANI3463.PDF
Cibelae (s.f.). Historia de la Lotería Nacional de Nicaragua. Recuperado de
Cannavo, Salvatore (1955). On the Epistemological Foundations of Probability. New York University Press.
Chung, Kai Lai (1983). Teoría elemental de la probabilidad y de los procesos estocásticos. Editorial REVERTE.
Judge, George G.; Griffiths, William E.; Carter, Hill R.; Lütkepohl, Helmut; Lee, Tsoung-Chao (1988). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, 2nd Edition. Editorial John Wiley & Sons.
Mlodinow, Leonard (2010). El andar del borracho: Cómo el azar gobierna nuestras vidas. Editorial Booket; 2nd edición (11 Marzo 2010).
Punto de encuentro (2019). Loterías Nicaragua. Recuperado de https://puntos.org.ni/loterias-nicaragua/
Lotería Nacional de Nicaragua (2021a). Cartilla de números ganadores del sorteo 2031. Recuperado de https://drive.google.com/file/d/1spUGvPZ64RE0cWImwDV0743LOtvrdd1v/view
Lotería Nacional de Nicaragua (2021b). Video del sorteo 2031 en Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szNUcvK5wjc&t=3838s
Pipis, George (16 de noviembre 2020). How to test for randomness. Recuperado de
https://medium.com/swlh/how-to-test-for-randomness-d6891dcd4c07
Tercero g., Sandra i. (2004). Estrategias de mercadeo de lotería nacional. Monografía para optar al grado de licenciatura en mercadeo. UAM. Recuperado de
Salsburg, David S. (1983). Understanding randomness: Exercises for statisticians. CRC Press.
Wang, Ying (2003). Nonparametric Tests for Randomness. ECE 461 project report, may 2003. Recuperado de http://www.ifp.illinois.edu/~ywang11/paper/ECE461Proj.pdf
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
